Oil falls for sixth straight day as US-Iran talks ease supply fears
Brent crude tumbled for a sixth consecutive day on Wednesday, hitting $78.5 a barrel, as fresh negotiations between the United States and Iran raised the possibility of sanctions relief and a surge in global supply. For Nigeria, the slide undermines a key revenue pillar.
Oil prices sank again in Asian trading Wednesday, extending the longest losing streak since October. The catalyst: renewed US-Iran talks in Oman, which could lead to a lifting of sanctions on Iranian crude exports, adding up to 1.5 million barrels per day to the market. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $78.5, while WTI hovered near $74.
The drop compounds pressure on Nigeria, where oil accounts for over 80% of federal revenue. The government’s budget assumes an average oil price of $80 per barrel for 2025. Persistent weakness below that level would force the finance ministry to either cut spending or borrow more, complicating the nation's fiscal consolidation path.
Traders are also watching OPEC+ reaction. The cartel has maintained production cuts, but a return of Iranian oil could prompt Saudi Arabia to reconsider curbs. Nigeria's own output remains stuck around 1.4 million barrels per day, well below its quota, meaning it cannot easily compensate for lower prices by raising volumes.
O que observar: The next round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for mid-May. A breakthrough would likely push Brent below $75. Also watch weekly US crude inventory data. For Nigeria, any sustained drop below $80 tests the resilience of the naira and the 2025 budget's fiscal targets.
Frequently asked questions
How much Iranian oil could return if sanctions are lifted?
Analysts estimate Iran could quickly add 1–1.5 million bpd to global markets, with full returns reaching 2.5 million bpd within a year.
What is Nigeria's oil breakeven price for the 2025 budget?
The government assumed $80 per barrel. Real breakeven including debt service is closer to $90 once other expenditures are factored in.
Could OPEC+ cut deeper to offset Iranian supply?
Possible but politically difficult. Saudi Arabia has signaled it wants to regain market share, and deeper cuts would be opposed by Russia and the UAE.
Reporting contributed by BusinessDay — BusinessDay · Título original: "Oil falls for sixth straight day as US-Iran talks ease supply fears"
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